Beijing, July 18 (Reporter Shangguan Yun) What if one day an asteroid hits the earth? This may be a scene imagined by many science fiction lovers. Earlier, it was reported that an asteroid might hit the earth on September 9 this year, but this possibility was finally ruled out.

　　On the 17th, "Asteroids will not hit the Earth in September" boarded a hot search in Weibo, which once again triggered a heated discussion: What is the "asteroid" we often talk about? What will happen if it collides with the earth?

　　The probability of "one in seven thousand" colliding with the earth

　　The hot search for "asteroids will not hit the earth in September" is related to an announcement issued by the European Space Agency on the 16th. According to media reports, the announcement pointed out that a mysterious asteroid discovered more than ten years ago was originally thought to have a small probability of hitting the earth on September 9 this year, but the latest observation data ruled out this possibility.

　　It is understood that this asteroid was discovered by astronomers in 2006, so it was code-named 2006 QV89. According to the observation data at that time, it had a probability of colliding with the earth on September 9 this year.

　　However, this asteroid was only observed in a short period of 10 days, and then mysteriously "disappeared". Astronomers never observed it again, which made it difficult to accurately calculate its current position.

　　Therefore, in order to judge whether the original observation results of QV89 "collision with the Earth" in 2006 are accurate, researchers have pondered a method: first, assume that the asteroid is still in the orbit that may collide with the Earth, and then observe its possible position in the sky on July 4 and 5, but found nothing.

　　Based on all kinds of data, this asteroid was finally considered to be no threat to the earth.

　　What the hell is an asteroid?

　　As the name implies, asteroids are celestial bodies in the solar system that move around the sun like planets, but their volume and mass are much smaller than those of planets.

　　"In 2006, scientists defined planets, asteroids and dwarf planets. For example, the earth is a planet, which basically lives alone, revolves around the sun, and has a relatively round shape. A typical dwarf planet is Ceres, and they are ‘ Live in groups ’ Yes, there are a bunch of celestial friends in the orbit. " Sun Zhengfan, a doctor of astrophysics and a popular science writer, said.

　　As for asteroids, compared with the first two, they are simply a group of strange little guys. Sun Zhengfan explained that asteroids also revolve around the sun, but they are not round in shape, and they are grotesque in shape, big and small.

　　According to public information, as of 2018, about 1.27 million asteroids have been discovered in the solar system, but due to the limitations of observation methods and other factors, this may be only a small part of all asteroids.

　　"If you search for near-earth asteroids or near-earth asteroids on the Internet, the number of them mentioned in relevant popular science articles will definitely surprise people." Sun Zhengfan said.

　　Asteroids and the mystery of dinosaur extinction

　　The powerful destructive power of asteroids hitting the earth can be known from scientists’ discussion on the mystery of dinosaur extinction. There is a well-known saying that an asteroid hit the earth about 66 million years ago was the direct cause of dinosaur extinction.

　　Specifically, this view holds that when an asteroid hit the earth, it triggered a huge tsunami, and the ocean on the surface of the earth suddenly rolled, but this was not the only disaster faced by dinosaurs.

　　The impact raised a lot of hot rocks and dust, which triggered a forest fire. Countless flying dust covered the sky, and the earth’s surface was not exposed to sunlight for many years. The global climate became cold and creatures became extinct on a large scale. Dinosaurs couldn’t adapt to the drastic climate change, and in addition, they were short of food and eventually went extinct.

　　"There are a pair of astronomers and their sons in the United States. In the strata around 66 million years ago, a metal element was found to have a very high content, but normally it has very little content in the rocks of the earth." Sun Zhengfan said, therefore, astronomers and their sons speculated that this metal element in the stratum exceeded the standard because an asteroid with a diameter of about 10 kilometers hit the earth at that time.

　　Of course, there are many different opinions about the reasons for the extinction of dinosaurs, such as volcanic eruption and so on. Sun Zhengfan introduced that some paleontologists believe that the extinction of dinosaurs is not a sudden event, but a process. Because of the long time, it is difficult to find a complete chain of evidence for many claims about the extinction of dinosaurs. The most popular one is "an asteroid hit the earth".

　　The disaster caused by "close contact"

　　In fact, people are worried about the "close contact" between asteroids and the earth because of the disaster and destructive power they may bring after hitting the earth.

　　For example, according to media reports, on February 15, 2013, an asteroid with a diameter of about 20 meters exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, which indirectly damaged more than 3,000 buildings and injured more than 1,600 people.

　　Astronomically, an object whose orbit is within 1.3 astronomical units from the sun (1 astronomical unit is the average distance between the sun and the earth, which is about 150 million kilometers) and whose orbit distance from the earth is less than 0.3 astronomical units is a near-earth object, which is a collection of near-earth asteroids and near-earth comets.

　　Among them, the potential impact with a diameter of more than 140 meters and the minimum distance from the earth orbit within 0.05 astronomical unit threatens celestial bodies and poses a direct threat to the earth.

　　"An asteroid with a larger diameter can easily cause serious disasters when it hits the earth." Sun Zhengfan explained that "asteroid impact on the earth" is a high-risk event, such as the impact that is thought to have led to the extinction of dinosaurs. There is still a huge crater in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, half on land and half in the sea.

　　Asteroids are terrible? There is no need to be overly anxious.

　　Based on the possible serious consequences of an asteroid’s visit, the news that an asteroid may hit the earth often causes many people’s worries. But Sun Zhengfan said that there is no need to be too anxious about this.

　　"First of all, it can cause extremely serious consequences ‘ Asteroids hit the earth ’ It’s a small probability event, and secondly, our earth has the atmosphere ‘ Protector ’ 。” Sun Zhengfan said.

　　Data Map: The picture shows beijing aerospace control center’s real-time monitoring and control mission of "Chang ‘e II" flying over an asteroid on December 13th. Sun zifa

　　He explained that the earth is moving in space, and there are always a huge number of things falling on it, mostly in the form of dust, or just like pebbles, some asteroids burn out in the atmosphere. "There are no people in most parts of the earth, such as the sea and the desert. Therefore, it does not have much impact on human beings. "

　　Sun Zhengfan also admitted that with the current scientific and technological means, it is still difficult to accurately calculate the running paths of asteroids that may cause harm to the earth, and "we can only estimate their size and quality by reflecting light, and this data itself has errors".

　　"Preventing doomsday asteroids is a very important job." Sun Zhengfan said, "Humans can unite to develop aerospace technology and prevent this major disaster through early warning."

　　Officers and men are on duty at Hongqila Fudaban at an altitude of 4,733 meters. Photo by Ji Wenzhi

　　At the end of May this year, our reporter (second from left) followed the officers and men of the frontier defense company of Hongqilafu on duty for an interview. The picture shows the reporter communicating with the officers and men during the duty break. Photo by Yue Xiaoping

　　The officers and men of Hongqilafu Frontier Defense Company rode yaks across the glacier on duty. Photo by Ni Guanghui

　　West! West! West!

　　Driving all the way to the west from Kashgar airport in Xinjiang for more than 400 kilometers, running over the frozen soil of snow-capped mountains and crossing the ice peak to Daban, Hongqilafu is just around the corner.

　　This is a dangerous, mysterious and desirable place. There are thousands of miles of ice peaks, thousands of years of snow, and the towering Pamirs; There are ancient silk roads, bloody canyons and desolate western borders. There are cloud gates, snow mountain checkpoints, and lovely border guards.

　　Founded in 1949, Hongqi Lafu Frontier Company has been responsible for the defense of the China-Pakistan border for nearly 100 kilometers all the year round, with the highest patrol point exceeding 5,800 meters above sea level. They also guard the highest national gate in the world — — Hongqilafu Port.

　　Ice Peak, Snow Valley, National Gate, Boundary Monument, Youth … … The officers and men of the frontier defense company of Hongqilafu, a frontier defense regiment of Xinjiang Military Region stationed here, sprinkled their blood on the patrol road filled with snow and snow, made youth a solemn boundary marker on the border of the motherland, and continued to write a song of youth for contemporary soldiers on the Pamirs.

　　Plateau hypoxia

　　But never lack of spirit

　　Hongqilafu, Tajik means "blood-stained channel". The average altitude here is more than 4,700 meters, with snow all year round, the oxygen content in the air is only 46% of that in the plain, the wind force is above 7 or 8 all year round, the annual average temperature is 3.3 degrees Celsius, the lowest temperature is MINUS 43 degrees Celsius, and the cold season lasts for 8 months.

　　Walking in the land of Hongqilafu, every breath will remind you of the importance of life. Living and working here requires not only survival ability, but also strong belief and willpower to support it.

　　Hongqilafu is a daunting place for the weak and a fertile ground for the spiritual growth of the strong — —

　　In the 1950s, the company’s older generation of frontier guards took root in the Pamirs with the heroic spirit of "three-humped camel with a pot and three wooden sticks to build a nest and store ice and snow as water to drink". For decades, generations of people guarding the border have listened to and followed the party, and their faith in loyalty to the country and guarding the border has always been rock-solid.

　　In the cold winter of that year, platoon leader He Yu led three soldiers to the border to perform a task, and when they returned, they were besieged by a snowstorm. When the rescuers arrived, they only saw four silent "ice sculptures", holding steel guns and keeping forward in the direction of the company.

　　In the early autumn of that year, Yang Bo, then the company commander, accidentally fell off the cliff while exploring the road on the cliff. Fortunately, he was blocked by a prominent boulder and fell into a coma on the spot. The comrade-in-arms carried him down the hill, and the first sentence Yang Bo asked when he woke up in the bumps was: "Have you reached the point yet?" Knowing that he was being sent down the mountain, he struggled to get down from his comrades’ backs and led everyone to climb to the top of the mountain.

　　Before marking the boundary pillar, Yang Bo painted the boundary pillar with a brush and paint. At that time, comrades-in-arms took off their hats and saluted and sang a chorus: "Hongqilafu is very high, and Hongqilafu is far away. Our place is called the border pass, and the boundary pillar trees are in the clouds … …” The majestic duet echoed in the ice peak and snow valley for a long time and became the eternal memory of officers and men.

　　"This is the power of faith." With a splitting headache due to altitude sickness, the reporter stuck an oxygen straw in his nose and listened to the story of the officers and men of the border defense company telling the story of guarding the border. Young officers and men have simple words and are not good at expressing emotions, but they have repeatedly moved reporters to wipe their tears.

　　Be at the border

　　Tight string of combat readiness

　　"Lack of oxygen is not lacking in spirit, and the altitude is higher and the standard is higher." Being in the company, the reporter really understood the meaning of this sentence. When boarding the Hongqilafu post, the reporter was panting at every step. Some people have calculated that walking on foot is equivalent to carrying 30 kilograms on the flat ground, and the difficulty of training intensity can be imagined.

　　恶劣的自然环境，没有成为连队降低训练标准的借口。尽管官兵不时地提醒记者走路要慢些，而上了训练场，他们个个像小老虎，敢打硬拼。官兵们在一次次极限挑战中，练就了“守得住、打得赢”的过硬本领。

　　“海拔再高高不过使命，生命有禁区备战无盲区”“不仅要守得住，更要打得赢”……“身处边防，使命重大，坚持战斗力标准，就要按照习主席的要求，‘保持箭在弦上、引而待发的高度戒备态势’。”连长杨映伟说，“我们就是祖国的眼睛，什么时候都要睁得大大的！”

　　为应对严峻复杂的边境防控形势，连队坚持加强应急处突演练，提高应对突发事件的能力，始终保持良好的战备状态。他们还协调武警、驻地派出所、民兵，每月举行边境防控、潜入潜出等联合演练……如今，一丝风吹草动、一点异常响动、一张陌生面孔，都会被官兵敏锐捕捉，迅速作出反应。

　　一次，驻守国门附近的红其拉甫前哨班列兵杨建刚上岗时，发现路旁停放着一辆皮卡车。他透过车窗发现，车内空无一人，车座上放着几件军装。他顿时警觉起来，立即向哨所报告。

　　Liang Chao, the instructor at that time, led three soldiers to come quickly. Suddenly, a man got into the car, started the car and turned around and ran. Instructor Liang immediately informed the company to start the military, police and civilian defense plan. In less than 7 minutes, company officers and soldiers, resident militia, and armed police officers and soldiers set up checkpoints at several roads at the same time. Twenty minutes later, the escaped man was captured. Later, it was learned that the man was a suspect and attempted to cross the border as a soldier.

　　In the past three years, the company has been the first in the group for more than ten times in the emergency readiness assessment. When Yang Jun, the head of the regiment, inspected the company’s combat readiness, he praised: "The soldiers of the Hongqilafu border defense company are like loaded bullets, always ready to attack!"

　　Mountain high road insurance

　　Stick to every inch of land

　　"I would rather let my life overdraw than let my mission owe." This sentence is not only a loud slogan in the border defense company of Hongqilafu, but also a true portrayal of officers and men performing their missions with their lives.

　　In September last year, the company commander Yang Yingwei led the soldiers to ride yaks and embarked on the annual routine patrol of Wufu Langgou.

　　The duty station of Wufu Langgou is known as the "Valley of Death". Every time the patrol officers and soldiers have to climb over 8 ice and snow Daban with an altitude of more than 5,000 meters, they have waded into glaciers for more than 30 times, and it takes at least 4 days to go back and forth for hundreds of kilometers. This is the only patrol line in the whole army that can only ride yaks with good endurance and walk on a cliff because of the high mountains and dangerous roads.

　　Glaciers and wading beaches. Every time I walk in Wufu Langgou, it is a test of life and death — —

　　Once, the patrol team arrived at the Koehler Qinghe River in Mizoguchi. When the military doctor Yang Haibo rode a yak to the middle of the river, a big wave swept him into the middle of the river, and even people and cattle were washed out of more than 300 meters, and finally he was rescued by his comrades in the downstream;

　　Once, the squad leader Ji Wenzhi slipped off the yak and almost fell off the cliff; Warrior Wang Fulong almost fell into a deep valley to avoid flying stones; Camping at night, then instructor Wang Lie lit his coat to fight the wolves; Wading into a glacier, the border guard Garedin fell into the river and was washed out more than 200 meters away … …

　　Another time in the early morning, when the patrol was camping, it was surrounded by wolves. A dozen pairs of green eyes stared at the camp, and the low hissing roar made the sentry creepy. The officers and men gathered together, lit the bonfire, kept pulling the bolt and confronted the wolves all night. It was not until dawn that the wolves dispersed, and the officers and men rushed to the next point without taking a rest.

　　In the past ten years, officers and men have been threatened by mudslides, blizzards, hail, avalanches and wild animals for nearly a hundred times on patrol. More than 30 officers and men have fallen into glaciers, valleys and snow pits, and 15 yaks have fallen off cliffs and died on patrol.

　　One thrilling story made the reporter jumpy. However, patrolling in Wufu Langgou is the common wish of the officers and men of the company. They said that only after experiencing the "warrior’s sign" can they be considered as excellent soldiers in the border defense company of Hongqilafu.

　　Cherish one’s home country

　　Youth always stays at the border.

　　Purple skin, chapped lips, sunken nails … … Here, the harsh natural environment gives the border officers and soldiers a common and unique makeup. Officers and men take off their caps, and there is a high hairline on each young face — — Hair is sparse. When they reach out their hands, sunken and deformed nails make people feel distressed … … Due to lack of oxygen and vitamins, most officers and men suffer from altitude diseases such as hypertension and ventricular hypertrophy in different degrees.

　　Only when you are stationed at the border can you understand your country better. Overcoming all kinds of discomfort caused by cold and lack of oxygen, officers and men carved poems of caring for their home country and selfless dedication on the glacier snow mountain.

　　In 2010, Master Sergeant Zhang Hongshun received the news that his mother was critically ill. At that time, the company was carrying out a major task. Zhang Hongshun, who had been defending for many years, silently walked out of the company gate. On the empty plateau, facing the direction of his hometown, he kowtowed three times to his mother.

　　The silent dedication of the officers and men of the company has also been cared for at all levels. Since the 18th National Congress, the working and living environment of the company has been greatly improved. Nowadays, officers and men live in new barracks, get oxygen from their beds, eat fresh vegetables and use long-term electricity.

　　“看云彩，看云彩，光秃秃的哨所也有乐趣在。大雪能封住山，封住了路，封不住士兵多彩的情怀……”

　　团政治处主任陈柏涛说，这是官兵最爱唱的歌曲《看云彩》。都说红其拉甫连有一种神奇魔力，是一个听了不敢来、来了却不愿走的地方。这首动听的歌曲，不就是对这种神奇魔力的注解吗？

　　“在激情奋斗中绽放青春光芒。”如今已是红其拉甫会谈会晤站副站长的王烈对记者说，习主席的这句话，就是红其拉甫边防连官兵的青春写照，这里不仅是干部成就事业的舞台，也是战士实现青春价值的好地方。

　　“永远忠于祖国，永远忠于界碑”……高原的艰苦环境改变的不只是他们的外表，也锻造了战士们忠诚无言的强大内心。

　　多年来，红其拉甫连牢记党和人民重托，忠诚戍边、甘于奉献，被中央军委授予“卫国戍边模范连”荣誉称号，连续12年被表彰为“基层建设先进连队”“边防执勤先进单位”，先后荣立集体一等功5次、二等功6次、三等功8次。

　　（陈金财、王雪振参与采写）

　　Since the beginning of this year, China has continued to promote supply-side structural reforms, increased tax reduction and fee reduction, rationalized the price formation mechanism in important areas, maintained a balance between market supply and demand, lowered inflation expectations, and moderately fluctuated consumer prices. At present, the overall price level has maintained a stable operation trend, which indicates that the economic operation is stable and good, creating a good environment for promoting high-quality economic development.

　　Recently, there has been a strong expectation that the prices of pork, fruit and other foods will rise. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics not long ago, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.0% in the first four months of this year. Among them, in April, the CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, and it was in the "2 era" for two consecutive months.

　　In an interview with Economic Daily China Economic Net, relevant experts said that, on the whole, since the beginning of this year, China has continued to promote supply-side structural reforms, increased tax reduction and fee reduction, rationalized the price formation mechanism in important areas, maintained a balance between market supply and demand, lowered inflation expectations, and moderately fluctuated consumer prices. At present, the overall price level has maintained a stable operation trend, which indicates that the economic operation is stable and good, creating a good environment for promoting high-quality economic development.

　　There has been a structural increase in prices.

　　In the first four months of this year, CPI rose by 1.7%, 1.5%, 2.3% and 2.5% respectively, and the monthly year-on-year increase showed a steady upward trend in moderate fluctuations. Among them, in the last two months, the year-on-year increase in prices has increased, entering the "2 era."

　　Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that the CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year in April this year, mainly due to the increase of individual varieties. Among them, pork, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits all increased by more than 10% year-on-year.

　　"Overall, despite the increase in CPI in the last two months, it is significantly lower than the control target of 3%, and it is mainly affected by factors such as the base of the previous year, the hikes and seasonality, showing structural upward characteristics and not having a comprehensive upward basis." Zhang Qianrong, deputy director of the Finance and Finance Research Office of the National Information Center, said.

　　Zhang Qianrong analyzed that in the first four months of this year, food prices rose by 3.2% year-on-year, which boosted CPI by 0.62 percentage points and contributed 29.7% to the CPI increase. Non-food prices rose by 1.7%, which boosted CPI by 1.48 percentage points and contributed 70.3%. The contribution rate of non-food prices to the price increase is obviously higher than that of food. Although the recent increase in pork prices has led to an increase in food prices, non-food prices have remained stable as a whole, and prices do not have the basis for an overall increase.

　　"At present, China’s price increase is at a medium level on a global scale. From an international perspective, China’s price increase is slightly higher than that of developed economies such as the United States and the European Union, and significantly lower than that of BRICS countries such as Russia, which is at a medium level in the world. " Zhang Qianrong said.

　　The data shows that in the first quarter of this year, the US CPI rose by 1.7% year-on-year, while the EU harmonized CPI rose by 1.6%, slightly lower than that of China. India’s CPI rose by 7.1%, Russia’s by 5.2%, South Africa’s by 4.2% and Brazil’s by 4.2%, which was significantly higher than China’s CPI.

　　It is worth noting that in the first four months of this year, the national producer price index (PPI) rose by 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.4% and 0.9% respectively, with a slight year-on-year increase.

　　Zhang Qianrong said that the increase in PPI was mainly affected by factors such as the rise in international oil prices and the negative increase in the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, the increase of PPI is lower than that of CPI, and the upstream and downstream price trends are upside down.

　　Pork supply is relatively abundant.

　　In April, the price of pork rose by 14.4%, an increase of 9.3 percentage points over the previous month, which affected the year-on-year increase of CPI by about 0.31 percentage points.

　　Relevant data show that in the first ten days of March this year, the price of white pigs rose continuously and rapidly. On March 1st, the average wholesale price of striped pigs in Beijing Xinfadi Market was 7.28 yuan/kg, but on March 10th, the price rose to 9.45 yuan/kg, and the price rose by 29.90% in 10 days, which was quite obvious. Since then, the price has fluctuated slightly.

　　"Overall, pork prices have changed little in the past 60 days. In other words, after the price of meat reached a higher level in mid-March, it showed a weak trend. " Liu Tong, director of statistics department of Beijing Xinfadi agricultural products wholesale market, said.

　　Liu Tong analyzed that in the first ten days of March, the price of pork rose significantly, which was the expected increase in advance. From the market situation, in the first week of March, the average daily market volume of white pigs increased by 10% from the previous week and 15% from the same period of last year, and there was no shortage of supply. In this case, the increase in meat prices mainly comes from the thrust outside the market, especially the data released by some institutions show that the stock of fertile sows has decreased, which provides conditions for the bottom rebound of meat prices.

　　"The increase or decrease in the number of fertile sows reflects that there is a certain lag period in the supply capacity and price, and the insiders call this lag period ‘ Cobweb effect ’ . In other words, the supply of pigs in the second half of 2019 may show ‘ Tight equilibrium ’ State, meat prices will rise. Therefore, the rise in early March is an early rise. " Liu Tong analyzed that after the release of relevant data, most forecasts tend to show that the pig price will reach an all-time high. This expectation has played a strong role in fueling the rise in meat prices.

　　Liu Tong said that in fact, the number of pig heads with white stripes does not fully represent the supply of ketone bodies in pork. After the price of meat rose, the pig farm was filled with the emotion of waiting for the price to be sold, the time of keeping pigs in the pen was prolonged, and the single weight of pigs generally increased. In April 2019, the single weight of pigs generally increased by 10%. According to this calculation, the supply of pork in April this year exceeded the same period last year. If this phenomenon continues, when the number of pigs drops by 20% and the single weight of pigs increases by 20%, the decline in the number of pigs can be compensated by the increase of single weight, and the supply of pork is still relatively sufficient.

　　There is no inflation risk.

　　"Overall, whether it is from food or industrial consumer goods and services, there will be no sharp increase in CPI in the future, and prices will be stable and have a solid foundation." In response to the future trend of prices, Liu Aihua said.

　　Liu Aihua analyzed that, from the perspective of food prices, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits are short-term impacted by extreme weather factors, which is not sustainable, and pork prices have a certain resilience. With the gradual recovery of prices, farmers’ enthusiasm for replenishing the column will be correspondingly improved, which will play a stabilizing role in prices. From the perspective of non-food prices, the supply capacity of industrial products is sufficient, and there is no basis for a sharp increase. Although the increase in service prices is relatively high, it is generally stable.

　　"Overall, the factors that will support and curb price increases in the future are intertwined." Zhang Qianrong said. From the factors supporting the price increase, on the one hand, affected by African swine fever epidemic and other factors, the number of live pigs has declined, and pork prices have continued to rise. However, considering the strong overall supply capacity of pork in China, an early warning mechanism for pig price control has been established, and it is more likely that the pork price will increase in the later period, but it does not have the basis for a substantial increase; On the other hand, with the decline of demographic dividend, labor cost will become a long-term factor to push up prices.

　　On the one hand, since 2012, the increase of CPI in China has been less than 3%. Considering that residents’ inflation expectations are generally related to the previous price level, the current low price increase has reduced residents’ inflation expectations; On the other hand, China’s main industrial products are abundant in supply, with bumper harvests for many years, high grain and oil stocks, rapid development of service industry, strong supply capacity in various fields and strong price stability. In addition, with the continuous advancement of supply-side structural reforms, the operating costs of enterprises have been significantly reduced, providing a good policy environment for stabilizing prices.

　　Zhang Qianrong said that after preliminary calculation, the CPI hikes factor is about 0.7% and PPI hikes factor is about 0.1% in 2019. Considering the hikes and the above factors, it is expected that consumer prices in China will continue to rise moderately and steadily in 2019, with CPI rising by about 2.3% and PPI rising by about 1.0%. There is no inflation risk, and the pressure on price control is light.

　　BEIJING, March 14 (Xinhua) Recently, the Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management of the Chinese Academy of Sciences released the White Paper on Online English Education for Children in China in 2017. According to the report, online English education for children in China is spreading its influence around the world, covering 35 countries and regions around the world. Except for China, Japanese, Canadian and American have the largest number of young students who use the services of educational enterprises in China.

　　In the domestic market, first-tier cities such as Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen have become the main force in the online children’s English education market. The three major brands have divided 80% of the domestic market, and VIPKID has a 55% market share; Domestic students tend to be younger, with an average age of about 6 years old. Most parents are willing to spend more than 10,000 yuan a year for this, and 70% parents are willing to choose North American foreign teachers with pure accents and lively teaching.

　　The data also shows that the total daily class hours of online children’s English education in China have exceeded 100,000. From this calculation, parents in China saved 146 million hours in total, effectively solving the pain point of parents’ time-consuming and labor-intensive transportation of their children to class. In terms of teaching staff, there are currently more than 30,000 foreign teachers in North America providing online English teaching services to students around the world, with an average teaching experience of 7.5 years. All of them have bachelor’s degrees or above, and many of them have ivy league backgrounds, including Columbia University, Duke University, Harvard University, Brown University and Stanford University.

　　Dr. Zhong Yunqin, Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, believes that the follow-up survey in recent years shows that the extensive online education service model is gradually losing its appeal and its business growth is obviously limited; The high-quality personalized Internet education platform pays more attention to the inherent development law of education, and creatively combines new educational concepts, teaching models, artificial intelligence, big data and other technical means to better meet the needs of users in the new era for personalized education. The global rise of domestic online education brands represented by VIPKID caters to this trend and explores new ideas for future educational innovation.

　　The average age of online students is 6 years old, and the number of people in East China accounts for over 30%.

　　The combination of the Internet and traditional education has given birth to a brand-new business scene. Teachers and students are no longer bound by geographical constraints, and students may connect with excellent educational resources around the world without leaving home. At present, the number of paid students on the VIPKID platform exceeds 200,000, covering 35 countries and regions around the world. Japan, the United States and Canada are the three countries with the largest number of overseas students on this platform. Generally speaking, online education has shown strong portability and is becoming an important means for children to learn English all over the world.

　　From the domestic market, first-tier cities such as Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen have become the main force in the online children’s English education market, and the three major regions of North China, East China and South China, which radiate from this, account for 81% of the overall market. Among them, the number of students in East China accounts for the highest proportion, with a share of 36%. North China and South China followed closely with 27% and 18% respectively. Compared with other regions, parents in coastal and economically developed areas are more receptive to online education mode and more willing to cultivate their children’s English ability from an early age.

　　According to the market survey, the Chinese Academy of Sciences shows that the domestic online children’s English education market is still in an early stage after only four years of development. In terms of market share, the top three companies at present are VIPKID, 51Talk and vipJr, which account for more than 80% of the market, of which VIPKID accounts for 55% of the domestic market; In terms of the number of foreign teachers, there are more than 30,000 foreign teachers working on the VIPKID platform, which exceeds the total number of foreign teachers of all other online education brands in China.

　　In major cities, the number of VIPKID students in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Chengdu occupies the top five. This is roughly consistent with the search distribution results of "VIPKID" in Baidu Index. It is worth noting that the students in two quasi-first-tier cities, Hangzhou and Chengdu, are growing rapidly, pushing Guangzhou, which ranked fourth in 2016, to sixth place. Cities such as Nanjing, Wuhan, Dalian and Chongqing also entered the TOP10.

　　At present, children’s English learning in China tends to be younger. From the perspective of urban distribution, the average age of students in first-tier cities is generally around 6 years old, and the average age of students in second-tier cities has slightly risen to 6.5 years old. The survey also shows that more and more parents begin to consider English education before their children are 3 years old.

　　Online mode helps parents in China save 146 million hours a year.

　　Driven by the deepening economic and cultural exchanges between China and foreign countries, the maturity of internet education technology and application, and the reform of English teaching, the online English education model for children has been recognized by more and more families and parents. Among them, parents in first-tier cities such as Beishangguang have fully realized that online education is an effective way to quickly improve their children’s English listening and speaking level, and the related cognition of parents in second-tier cities has also been significantly improved. In contrast, parents in third-and fourth-tier cities are still relatively vague about the concept of Internet education, and the market needs more patient cultivation.

　　The data shows that users in the online children’s English market have strong spending power, and middle-class families with an annual income of 200,000-1 million account for 58%. Most parents said that they would spend more than 10,000 yuan on their children’s English education every year. Despite the high cost, most families still think that online English education has remarkable learning effect and high cost performance.

　　According to the survey data of a large number of parents by Chinese Academy of Sciences, the phenomenon that many parents passively choose Asian foreign teachers is changing under the previous insufficient supply. At present, 73.6% of parents prefer to choose foreign teachers in North America for three reasons: foreign teachers in North America have purer accents and more lively teaching methods, and North America is the first choice for their children to study abroad. 22.1% parents tend to choose British or Australian foreign teachers, while only 4.3% are willing to choose Asian (Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia) foreign teachers.

　　In online children’s English learning, after-class evaluation is a very important part of the evaluation of learning effect. At present, the number of foreign teachers on the VIPKID platform exceeds 30,000, and the total number of evaluations by users after class exceeds 5 million, and each foreign teacher receives an average of 167 evaluations. Foreign teachers with five-star praise are more favored by parents, and foreign churches with bad reviews are quickly eliminated by the market. A tripartite feedback mechanism between parents, North American foreign teachers and online platforms is taking shape. In terms of specific dimensions, "paying attention to pronunciation", "being patient and friendly" and "being good at guiding" are the three evaluation keywords that parents are most concerned about, and the number of evaluations related to each keyword exceeds 1 million.

　　The rise of online English education mode highlights many disadvantages of traditional offline mode. According to the survey of offline traditional mode, 85% parents complain that it takes time and effort to pick up and drop off their children, which is particularly prominent in first-tier cities. Many parents spend far more time on picking up and dropping off their children than the class hours themselves. 68% of parents think that the level of offline foreign teachers is uneven and the choice space is extremely limited; 61% parents think that offline mode is not conducive to systematically understanding their children’s learning progress; 49% parents think that there is too little interaction in offline large class mode; 28% of parents said that their children are not interested in learning in offline institutions.

　　Online education allows more and more children to enjoy North American English education without leaving home, which saves parents a lot of time. The survey shows that parents in big cities spend an average of more than 2.5 hours on picking up and waiting for a class for their children, and the average time spent in small and medium-sized cities is about 1.8 hours.

　　At present, VIPKID has 100,000 online courses every day, which exceeds 50% of the total online courses of the same kind in China. Calculated by saving 2 hours per class, online mode saved about 146 million hours for parents in China. Even according to the walking distance, it saves parents in China nearly 730 million kilometers a year, which is equivalent to 18,250 laps around the equator of the earth. Switching to car transport calculation will help China families save about 650,000 tons of gasoline consumption every year.

　　The data shows that when children adapt to the online mode, 82% of online children’s English learners complete their classes independently without their parents’ company. At the same time, parents are more willing to learn about their children’s learning at any time with the help of classroom video playback and real-time class monitoring system. More than 87% parents have used the course playback function within one month, including 13% parents who work in different places or travel, who have used the real-time class monitoring function within one month.

　　Because the online children’s English learners are generally young, and the teaching pays more attention to the improvement of English comprehensive ability such as expression, parents’ feedback on the effect is lagging behind. VIPKID class data shows that in the first five classes, parents think that the effective curve grows more slowly; With the deepening of the course, the growth rate of the feedback result curve is obviously improved, and the maximum growth rate is ushered in in the 20 th section; Since then, parents’ satisfaction has shown a continuous growth trend.

　　Among the extracurricular reading materials of online children’s English education, excellent picture books are more popular with children. On the VIPKID open class platform, the TOP5 five are all excellent picture books, including popular science, fairy tales, humanities and other topics. In terms of reading habits, it becomes an open class collective "movie-watching day" for parents of students every Friday night.

　　The average teaching experience of foreign teachers in North America is 7.5 years, and the master’s degree is over 30%

　　According to the data of foreign teachers from VIPKID, the foreign teachers in North America engaged in online children’s English education are mainly concentrated in the eastern part of the United States, followed by the central part of the United States, the western part of the United States and the southeastern part of Canada. In terms of specific states, Texas in central China ranks first in the number of foreign teachers, followed by Florida, Utah, Georgia and California, the largest state in the United States.

　　Among the TOP10 cities in North America, Orlando, a city in central Florida, has the largest number of foreign teachers, and Chicago and Houston rank second and third, with a small gap with Orlando. As the sole representative of Canadian cities, Toronto ranks fourth.

　　According to the data of VIPKID foreign teachers, the number of foreign teachers in North America who have been teaching for more than 5 years accounts for 70%, with an average teaching experience of 7.5 years. Among them, foreign teachers with 10-20 years of teaching experience account for 25%, and foreign teachers with more than 20 years of teaching experience account for 7%. In terms of academic qualifications, all foreign teachers in North America have bachelor’s degrees or above, of which 30% are masters and 2% are doctors. From the data of appointment, foreign teachers with longer teaching experience are more popular with parents, and foreign teachers with active expressive force are also deeply loved; It is worth noting that the number of male foreign teachers only accounts for 10% of the total, and the demand for classes is in short supply.

　　The Internet education model has enabled foreign teachers who graduated from top universities in the world to enter China families. The data shows that among the more than 30,000 North American foreign teachers, there are many graduates from American Ivy League and well-known universities, including Columbia University, Duke University, Harvard University, University of Pennsylvania, Brown University and Stanford University. These foreign teachers with prestigious backgrounds cover pedagogy, psychology, special education, literature, sociology and economics.

　　The survey shows that the focus of foreign teachers in North America in the process of online teaching is first to improve their self-skills, followed by a sense of accomplishment and educational public welfare, and finally to improve their income and cross-cultural communication experience. With its mature teacher training system, VIPKID continues to empower foreign teachers, thus becoming the most popular online children’s English education platform for foreign teachers in North China in 2017, and surpassing Amazon to become the first in the list of the most popular telecommuting platforms in the United States, which also highlights the unique attraction of online education in for foreign teachers.

　　The rapid development of online children’s English industry allows foreign teachers to freely choose various teaching platforms. When choosing a teaching platform, foreign teachers in North America first look at the number of students on the platform, followed by the degree of technical stability and whether the course content is easy to teach and learn; In addition, the popularity of the platform and the teaching atmosphere are also important factors affecting foreign teachers in North America. At present, in the major social networking sites in the United States, the popularity of VIPKID far exceeds that of 51Talk and vipJr, which rank second and third.

　　Online mode promotes education and benefits a large number of rural primary schools.

　　The Internet has enabled a large number of high-quality educational resources to cover children in poor areas in China in a short period of time, and various online education platforms in China have launched various public welfare activities. "VIPKID" has been extended to 100 rural schools since it started on September 12, 2017. These schools are located in 21 provinces in China, with Yunnan, Gansu and Guizhou accounting for the largest proportion.

　　Compared with the trend of younger students in cities, English education in rural areas generally started late. According to the 100 rural schools covered by "VIPKID", most rural children’s English education begins after the third grade. The combination of online education and public welfare has enabled more North American foreign teachers to enter rural classrooms. Among the 3,745 students covered by the VIPKID public welfare project, 92% said that they were exposed to foreign teachers for the first time.

　　With the help of online education mode, the plight of weak and limited English teachers in rural schools has been quickly improved. "VIPKID foreign teachers from North America enter the rural classroom" only took one month, and the average completion rate jumped from the initial 78% to over 90%, and some of them have already achieved 100% completion.

　　For rural children, learning English faces many challenges, including the lack of local English teachers, poor English teaching materials and equipment, and parents’ insufficient attention to English education. According to the survey of rural children’s wishes, the number one in rural children’s minds is looking forward to "more foreign teachers’ classes", followed by "more picture books", and "parents pay more attention to my study", and "I can communicate in English" is also at the top of the wish list.