Today’s capital market has a huge amount of information.
During the downturn of the stock market, Vice Premier Liu He and the leaders of the NPC and CPPCC made their voices in the official media successively, with high specifications and quite consistent pace. They responded to social concerns about the current economic and financial focus (especially the stock market issue) and gave many important judgments and measures, which were highly instructive.
The market also seems to be "a long drought meets rain", and A shares have ushered in a long-lost surge. Let’s take a look.
cause
The Shanghai Composite Index dropped from the highest point of 3,587 in January this year to the lowest point of 2,449 this morning, dropping more than 1,100 points, nearly one third, and the market value of many stocks was below 1 billion yuan. Shareholders joked, "the stock market is this thing, Audi goes in and Alto comes out; Buffett goes in and Hobbit comes out. "
Under the joke, it revealed the sadness of investors. Last Sunday, Chairman Liu Shiyu of the China Securities Regulatory Commission talked with investors and used "the spring of the stock market is not far away" to cheer up the market.
However, market participants also said that "spring is not far away, but many enterprises can’t survive winter", which represents the general aspiration of the market. Since the beginning of this year, the financing difficulties of private enterprises and the frequent "explosion" of the equity pledge of major shareholders of private listed companies have caused the market confidence to collapse and attracted the attention of the regulatory authorities.
China’s stock market fell sharply, which was influenced by many uncertain factors. Liu He summed it up with four reasons:First, external factors; Second, internal structural factors; Third, expected changes; Fourth, market technical factors.
From the external factors, Sino-US trade frictions have been repeated, the central banks of major countries such as the United States have stepped into the interest rate hike cycle, and global stock markets have significantly adjusted back in the near future. Domestically, the task of economic restructuring has not yet been completed, and the year-on-year GDP growth in the third quarter has also slipped to 6.5%. The development of private economy and the protection of property rights have yet to be implemented.
From the voice of the regulatory authorities, targeted measures have been taken on specific issues such as "equity pledge financing business risk", "private enterprise financing" and "market long-term capital source". It is worth noting that under the leadership of the State Council Financial Stability Committee, the coordination of supervision has been greatly enhanced, which is refreshing.
Specifically.
measure
Everyone must be deeply impressed by the "skyrocketing" and "plunging" in the abnormal fluctuations of the stock market in 2015. After the deleveraging of the stock market in recent years, the scale of over-the-counter fund-raising and financing has decreased greatly, but the "leverage" mode of "equity pledge" is still an important financing tool for the major shareholders of listed companies.
Once leveraged funds encounter market volatility, it will aggravate market volatility. Simply put, this process is "stock price decline — Burst positions — Investor confidence is frustrated — — Aggravating the vicious stampede of stock price decline.
This is also the "technical factor of the market" pointed out by Liu He.
According to the statistics of a securities company, as of October 17th, there were 2,423 major shareholders of listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, accounting for 68.2% of all A-shares, with a total market value of 3.9 trillion shares pledged and a total market value of 985.2 billion yuan of open positions. The major shareholders were suspected to have touched the market value of closed positions of 2.95 trillion yuan.
It can be seen that there are many companies close to the liquidation line, and the potential risks are greater. In response to the "risk of equity pledge financing", Guo Shuqing, Chairman of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, asked "banking financial institutions to scientifically and reasonably manage the risk of equity pledge financing business and take appropriate measures to handle it safely."
Recently, after Shenzhen invested tens of billions of dollars to help listed companies, Guangzhou, Beijing and other places introduced measures to solve the problem of equity pledge of listed private enterprises, which provided "timely assistance" for high-quality listed companies, especially private high-tech enterprises.
The CSRC paid more attention to the reform of the basic market system, and put forward seven measures, such as formulating the Administrative Measures for Private Equity Management of Securities and Futures Operating Institutions, improving the share repurchase system of listed companies, deepening the market-oriented reform of mergers and acquisitions, promoting the reform of the New Third Board system, and increasing the support for the listing of scientific and technological innovation enterprises.
To save the market, not all listed companies have to save it. Some "junk" companies still need to be cleared to make the market more effective. Liu He said that the adjustment and clearing of the stock market is creating good investment opportunities for its long-term healthy development.
private enterprise
The speech of the top management reflects the care for private enterprises. Although financial policies have always been beneficial to the release of private enterprises, there are still many "obstacles" in the transmission of actual funds to private enterprises.
In terms of importance, the private economy plays an important role in the whole economic system, contributing more than 50% of tax revenue, more than 60% of GDP, more than 70% of technological innovation, more than 80% of urban employment, and more than 90% of new jobs and enterprises.
In view of the social anxiety about private enterprises, Liu He reiterated his adherence to the "two unswerving" principle. On the one hand, he unswervingly consolidated and developed the public sector of the economy, on the other hand, he unswervingly encouraged, supported and guided the development of the non-public sector of the economy.
Liu He also cleared up the misunderstandings and deviations in the actual implementation process. "For example, the business personnel of some institutions think that it is safe to provide loans to state-owned enterprises, but it is politically risky to provide loans to private enterprises, so they would rather not do anything and not make political mistakes. This kind of understanding and practice is completely wrong. We must understand this issue from the perspective of politics and the overall situation. "
If Liu He is pointing out the general direction, the two sessions are concrete implementation.
Yi Gang, the governor of the central bank, proposed three ways to solve the financing difficulties of private enterprises, namely: (1) bond financing and providing credit enhancement services; (2) equity financing; and (3) supporting commercial banks to provide credit to private enterprises.
The CSRC focuses on strengthening services from the capital market, which is also three measures: (1) enhancing the financing service function of the GEM and the New Third Board; (2) encouraging all kinds of asset management institutions to participate in mergers and acquisitions of private listed companies; and (3) using various debt instruments to solve the problem of difficulty in issuing bonds.
fund
The recovery of the stock market is inseparable from the "liquidity factor", that is to say, where does the "money" come from?
In the first half of this year, regulatory documents such as the "New Regulations on Asset Management" made strict regulations on the entry of asset management products and funds into the stock market. However, under the current situation, the regulatory rules have been eased and improved to some extent: (1) the public wealth management products issued by bank wealth management subsidiaries are allowed to directly invest in stocks; (2) Do not set the sales starting amount of wealth management products; (3) Individual investors are not required to purchase wealth management products for the first time for face-to-face signing.
This means that the threshold of financial management is adjusted. Billion-scale bank financial management is a potential capital to enter the market, which is conducive to stabilizing stock market expectations, but investors should also have the awareness of "taking risks at their own risk".
For a time, insurance funds "made waves" in the stock market. It is undeniable that insurance funds have the advantage of long-term stable investment. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission’s latest attitude is: "Increase the financial nature of insurance funds and strategically invest in high-quality listed companies, and allow insurance funds to set up special products to participate in resolving the liquidity risk of stock pledge of listed companies, and not to be included in the supervision of equity investment ratio."
This time, market supervision must keep up.
confidence
Does the favorable admission of funds mean that the stock market can be "immediate"?
Throughout the high-level speech, it conveys the meaning of "stable expectations". No matter from the laws of the market itself, or investors’ expectations, economic fundamentals, etc., there is no basis for a sharp rise.
From the perspective of opportunities, Liu He believes that "the bubble of listed companies has been greatly reduced, the quality of listed companies is improving, and the valuation is at a historical low. Therefore, many institutions suggest paying close attention to the China stock market and think that the China stock market has a high investment value."
He also reminded everyone, "I believe investors will make rational judgments."
When the policy bottoms out, the market will also grind the bottom repeatedly.
From the perspective of the real economy, China’s economy is still in the "three-phase superposition" stage, and some enterprises are facing some difficulties. This is precisely the stage where entrepreneurs can make great achievements. Entrepreneurs with courage, vision and courage should take the lead and live up to expectations.
Liu He told everyone that the China government will create an equal environment, strengthen the rule of law, strengthen the protection of property rights and intellectual property rights, adhere to the basic economic system, and deepen reform and opening up. There is no reason why we should not be full of confidence in the broad prospects of China’s economic development. "Now is a critical moment when actions are better than a dozen programs. All aspects should be implemented more vigorously, with a stronger sense of responsibility, dare to take responsibility, act quickly, and effectively introduce some specific policies to promote the healthy development of the stock market."
Wen Yaoding rides an ox.
