Folding screen mobile phones are accelerating the ＂folding＂ of the industry.

Is folding screen a false proposition? Since Samsung launched its first folding screen mobile phone, the controversy surrounding this issue has not stopped. On the one hand, the new experience gained after expanding a larger screen is valuable, and on the other hand, it is the sacrifice in weight, price and reliability for folding the screen.

Today, the folding screen mobile phone has not yet ushered in a decisive breakthrough in these two aspects, but we can’t ignore the progress at the product level. Whether it is a lighter and thinner body, more and more mature technology and technology, or even continuous optimization of the system, the daily use experience of the folding screen mobile phone tends to be perfect.As the price of folding screen products continues to drop, the user threshold is also decreasing.

OPPO Find N2, produced by Lei Technology

In fact, different from the long-term debate between users, if we look at the actions of mobile phone manufacturers for a long time, we will see that mainstream smartphone manufacturers are pouring into this track in the past two years. Each company has launched its own folding screen products, and even more brands are preparing to enter, including Meizu and Yijia.It can be said that there are more folding screen mobile phones available for consumers to choose from in the market, and the range and speed of product update are also improving.

01. The folding screen becomes lighter and the market scale becomes heavier.

On March 23rd, Huawei held this year’s spring conference in Shanghai. At the conference, a package of new products was released, among which Huawei P60 series and Mate X3 folding screen mobile phones occupied the core position. Like most mobile phone manufacturers with folding screens, Huawei Mate X3 also takes thinness as the focus of its products. The plain leather version weighs 239g, and the non-plain leather version we actually measured is 246g.

At the press conference of Huawei’s 2022 annual report, Xu Zhijun, Huawei’s rotating chairman, said at that time: "Huawei’s latest folding screen mobile phone Mate X3 series has achieved the same weight as the ordinary straight board machine. 」

Huawei Mate X3, filmed by Lei Technology

Not only Huawei, but OPPO Find N2 released at the end of last year directly reduced the weight of the fuselage to 233g (non-leather version of 239g) with a relatively small screen size, which is even lighter than the 240g iPhone 14 Pro Max. Manufacturers such as Xiaomi and Glory are also exploring how to make folding screen phones lighter and thinner; Even vivo and Samsung, which have different routes, are trying to make folding screen products thinner and lighter on the basis of giving priority to ensuring top-level configuration.

On the other hand, in addition to horizontally folding mobile phones, after Samsung Galaxy Flip and Huawei Pocket, OPPO also launched N2 Flip vertically folding mobile phones, and vivo X Flip will be officially released soon. They are all lighter and cheaper, so they account for a large part of the current sales of folding screen mobile phones.In last year’s article, we actually pointed out that the focus of folding screen mobile phone manufacturers at this stage will be inclined to the vertical folding direction.

Unlike the "lighter" folding screen mobile phones, the whole folding screen mobile phone market continues to "get heavier". According to the data provided by market research organization IDC, in 2022, China’s smartphone shipments fell by 13% year-on-year, reaching 286 million units, and returned to below 300 million units after ten years. At the same time, in 2022, the annual shipment of folding screen mobile phones in China increased by 118% year-on-year, approaching 3.3 million units, of which more than 1.1 million units were shipped in the fourth quarter.

Figure /IDC

In terms of market structure, Huawei firmly occupies the first position in the domestic folding screen market, with a market share of 47.4%; Samsung ranked second, accounting for 16.5% of the market; With the stable performance of Find N series throughout the year, OPPO gained 13.8% market share, ranking third.

However, according to the data of CINNO Research in January this year, the sales volume of OPPO folding screen mobile phones increased by 483% year-on-year, while Huawei folding screen mobile phones decreased by 33% year-on-year. Therefore, OPPO achieved the overtaking of Huawei in the domestic market with a 30% share.The overall pattern has also changed from "Huawei riding the dust" to "three pillars" of Huawei, OPPO and Samsung.

Figure /CINNO Research

Of course, this is largely because Find N2/N2 Flip was just released last December. However, it is still worth noting that compared with the sales volume and market share after the release of Find N last year, the performance of N2 series has been significantly improved.

02. "Folding" has been used recently, but "unfolding" still needs to be improved.

The development history of consumer electronics proves one thing-most people like big screens, otherwise Samsung Galaxy Note will not be an instant hit, iPhone 6 Plus will not become the best-selling iPhone in history, and TV screens will not enter the 100-inch field. The large screen of smart phones, after the full screen, touched the "ceiling" of human palms.

However, the demand of mobile phone users for larger screens has never changed. We want to browse the news while chatting. Want to play games while watching the raiders; I want to drag the text/picture/document directly to WeChat, and even write Word and PPT. More complex consumer demand and more scenes are forcing software and hardware to create better design and space. Small window function is the effort of pure software, and folding screen can bring more essential changes.

Xiaomi MIX Fold 2, filmed by Lei Technology

However, as a mobile device that can be used at any time, the characteristics of the mobile phone determine that the folding screen mobile phone is basically folded in the mobile scene, which requires the folding screen mobile phone to ensure the use experience under the external screen. As early as the Xiaomi MIX Fold 2 evaluation, we talked about it.The further thinning of the fuselage, the alignment of the external screen with the conventional ratio, and the basic optimization at the system level all make the folding screen mobile phone more suitable for daily use.

In the evaluation of Huawei Mate X3, the positive effect of this strategy on daily use is also pointed out. But at the same time, it is also mentioned that "although users of folding screen mobile phones spend much more time using the external screen than the internal screen, only the internal screen can represent the brand-new experience that the folding screen mobile phone wants to bring." Only by expanding it can we enjoy the pleasure of information acquisition and interaction efficiency improvement. 」

Finally, it is decided whether the folding screen mobile phone is a flash in the pan, or whether it will become the "key" for mobile phone manufacturers to cut into the high-end market, or whether the users of the folding screen mobile phone will buy it. The deeper question behind it is whether the "folded" mobile phone can bring new value to users.

Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 4, figure/unpash

Did iPhone users regret it after Lei Technology spent 7999 yuan to buy a folding screen phone? Interview with a user who switched from iPhone to folding screen phone, she mentioned:

"The big screen of the folding screen mobile phone brings a more comfortable experience. For example, it can be operated on multiple screens, and an application can be presented on two screens, one for WeChat chat and the other for watching WeChat official account. You can also run different Applications in different screens on the big screen, such as WeChat and video app. Ordinary smart phones also have split screen function, but limited by the display area, it is very cramped to use. 」

Judging from our experience in using various folding screen mobile phones, the latest generation of folding screen mobile phones will not have much obstacles in daily use, and the price of thinness and continuous exploration will also provide more space for the popularization of folding screen mobile phones.

The biggest problem is the application ecology, especially the long-term absence of Android on the tablet. A large number of apps have not been adapted to large screens. Parallel horizon is a clever way. However, as we said in the evaluation of Mate X3, "Huawei Mate X3 has more like" two screens "than a complete internal screen. 」

Screenshot of mobile App

The two are still different after all. However, it is still worth looking forward to. As hardware sales continue to rise, software developers may be more aware of the value of folding screens and the potential for big screens to change the ecology of mobile applications.

03. Folding screen is the best opportunity to break the pattern of smart phones.

The more the market goes down, the more you can see the value of high-end products.According to the report released by industry research institute Counterpoint Research, under the background of the decline of smart phones last year, the sales of high-end mobile phones above $600 increased by 1% against the trend, and the proportion of total revenue in the entire smart phone market exceeded half for the first time, reaching 55%.

Among them, Apple monopolizes 75% of the high-end mobile phone market, and considering the price of iPhone, the proportion of revenue will only be higher.It can be said that Apple almost dominates the market of high-end mobile phones and gets most of the profits of the whole industry. Coupled with the long-term occupation of users’ minds in the high-end market, these have brought great challenges to the high-end of domestic mobile phones.

Of course, the more fundamental problem is that the peak of smart phones has passed, and the next market competition will be more of a zero-sum game. Under the premise that the scale of users will not break through again, the importance of high-end mobile phones will become more and more obvious. However, the software and hardware of conventional smart phones are so mature that it is difficult to form a differentiated competitive advantage, let alone break the existing high-end market structure.

From the history of consumer electronics, the best opportunity for all industries to change is with the emergence of new technologies or product nodes. "Bigger screen" was once one of the most distinctive keys at the beginning of the iPhone, and it was also the core driving force for the miracle of iPhone 6 and Galaxy Note, and it was also the battle of heroes in the era of full screen. It can be predicted that a larger screen will still be the key to the transformation of the mobile phone industry in the next stage.

As far as the eye can see, the folding screen that is mature enough is the best opportunity for smartphone manufacturers.